Chapter 16: Probability Models (Days 146-147)

There are no more school holidays between Easter and Memorial Day. So while there was only a Little March (rather than a Big March), there really is a Long April/May -- a Spring Fever stretch.

Today in Ethnostats, we move on to Chapter 16 of the Stats text, on probability models. In this chapter, the students learn how to find an expected value (mean) and standard deviation from a probability model. The chapter opens with the idea that insurance (specifically life insurance) is a form of gambling. I tell the students about an episode of The Simpsons in which the family's neighbor, Ned Flanders, loses his house in a hurricane. But Flanders doesn't have home insurance because he, as a devout Christian, is opposed to all forms of gambling -- including insurance. And speaking of gambling, I tell my class about poker. A professional poker player's job is to maximize his (or her) expected value (average win rate) and minimize the standard deviation (to avoid huge wins -- and more importantly, huge losses).

Today is also the day of the state SBAC exam for juniors in English/language arts. Of the three big state tests, this is the one that affects me the least, since only English teachers proctor the ELA exam (duh!) and most of my students are non-testing seniors. This is the multiple choice section -- the performance task will be tomorrow.

But still, there are two juniors in my fourth period Ethnostats class. I often wonder whether I should avoid giving hard assignments on state testing days. A difficult lesson on an SBAC day might send the wrong message -- that it's the class assignments that matter rather than the state test. Instead, I believe in encouraging the students to work hard on their performance task tomorrow. And so during today's long note-taking session, I tell the junior pair that they don't have to take notes -- they can just take a photo of the whiteboard instead. I check all the seniors' notes for completion.

Meanwhile, I'm looking to Calculus and the start of Chapter 7, on differential equations. A Chapter 7 quiz is scheduled for the day of the SBAC math performance task -- and now I'm thinking about the lone junior in my Calculus class. I don't want to rearrange the class for the sake of a single  student, and yet I don't want to force her to take my quiz on the same day. Well, I'll cross that bridge when we get to it.

Section 7.1 on the Calculus text is on modeling with differential equations. Yesterday our counselor (qua AP proctor) came in to discuss the upcoming exam, and then I played Michael Starbird's Lecture 14, which is more on the Fundamental Theorem in Calculus. In Trig we reached Chapter 4, on graphing. We started out with graphing the six basic (parent) functions.

Today is Sevenday on the Eleven Calendar:

Resolution #7: We earn our grades through hard work and determination.

As the Warm-Up, I have the students reflect on their progress report grades, to prepare the students to get through the Spring Fever stretch.

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